@InCollection{Casagrande:2023:DeFuSi,
               author = "Casagrande, Fernanda",
                title = "Decadal and Future Simulations for Arctic Sea Ice",
            booktitle = "Novel Perspectives of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences 
                         Vol. 4",
                 year = "2023",
               editor = "Yu, H.",
                pages = "159--170",
             keywords = "Arctic sea ice, climate models, climate change.",
             abstract = "In this work we evaluated the ability of eleven Global Climate 
                         model belonging to CMIP5 project, focusing in the Brazilian Earth 
                         System Model (BESM-OA V2.3) results to represent the Arctic sea 
                         ice and sensitivity to CO2 forcing, using decadal simulations 
                         (1980-2010) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our 
                         results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled 
                         Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same 
                         numerical experiment [1]. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are 
                         consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all 
                         models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to 
                         observations. By analyzing the spatial patterns, we found a 
                         systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the 
                         Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios 
                         showed a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in 
                         radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all 
                         models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free 
                         conditions at the end of the melting season. We suggested that the 
                         projected future sea ice loss is associated to a combined effect 
                         of the Arctic Polar Amplifcation and the radiative climate 
                         feedbacks processes.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                  doi = "10.9734/bpi/npgees/v4/17954D",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/bpi/npgees/v4/17954D",
                 isbn = "9788119039",
                label = "lattes: 9240753968751215 1 Casagrande:2023:DeFuSi",
             language = "en",
               volume = "4",
        urlaccessdate = "06 maio 2024"
}